![]() This article will examine the factors that caused these catastrophic losses of life and aims to determine the degree to which exogenous variables, such as the weather, and endogenous variables, such as the aircraft used, influenced survival rates. Bomber Command was formed in 1936 and, by the end of the war in 1945, some 55,573 men had lost their lives in its service (RAF, 2011). In the face of such daunting figures it is a wonder how any of the commanders could send out so many men, night after night, to their deaths. Bradfield (2003) 49 Squadron, shot down 10 August 1943 on his sixteenth raid. Our tour would consist of thirty operations and probability said we'd be lucky to make it to the twentieth raid. When I began flying operations in March 1943 losses were averaging five percent a night. Keywords: RAF, Econometrics, Probit Regression, WW2, Bomber Command, Probability Factors such as the time of day, the altitude of attack and the population density of the target are considered, and the results show exactly how the different variables influenced survival rates, with the time of day and altitude being the most significant factors. The probability investigation is extended to see just how likely a bomber crew was to be shot down in any given raid. By applying econometric techniques this article aims to examine the specific factors that caused such catastrophic losses. In all 55,573 men died serving the bomber squadrons, embarking on courageous and dangerous mission often with little hope of success. This article examines a specific subset of lives lost: those of RAF Bomber Command from 1939 to 1945. Millions of lives were lost during World War Two. By Robin Hudson, Department of Economics, University of Nottingham
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